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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."