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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.