War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".